The best records in sports
May 22, 2019
Recently John Burn-Murdoch updated his interactive football viz and tweeted about how great Lionel Messi is.
NEW: Lionel Messi now has 600 goals in club football.
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) May 2, 2019
As an homage to the š Iāve updated my interactive #dataviz of the top scorers in 40 years of elite football.
See how Messiās scoring rate compares to both Ronaldos, MbappĆ©, Shearer & 190 other greats https://t.co/hsUfVVWsR9 pic.twitter.com/T0N5J7B5iT
Itās fair to say that in recent memory, his scoring rate stands out as exceptional.
But over the years, in a variety of sports there have been exceptional performers. This begs the question, is Lionel Messiās goal rate more impressive than Rafa Nadalās clay court win %? What about Don Bradmanās batting average?
Itās basically impossible to objectively compare players within the same sport across different eras. Itās even more ridiculous to compare different sports across eras. But itās also fun.
With that goal in mind (fun!) I decided to get hold of some data from other sports and do some comparisons. This isnāt a comprehensive view on all sports or potential records, just a small number that I could come up with off the top of my head and fairly easily find some data on.
The full code for doing this is on my Github.
Tennis
Letās start with tennis. I couldnāt find a website with the stats I wanted which was easy to webscrape, so I ended up manually copy and pasting a few pages from atptour.com into Excel. Iām not entirely sure which players are included here, there are some good and some bad records so thereās a spread of players but Iām not sure whether itās covering āall professional tennis players in the open eraā or something more specific.
If I want to compare multiple different sorts of records over many sports, itās going to be necessary to have a consistent scale. Goals per game in football doesnāt share a common scale with win rate. And even if we have two different win %ages it might be the case that itās easier to win in tennis than in F1, so the shape of these data are different. To get around this, Iāve decided to use z scores (or standardised scores) where Iāve subtracted the mean and divided by the standard deviation. These numbers then represent how far top performers are from average performers accounting for how much variation there is in performance.
If the variables are normally distributed (look like a bell curve) then a value which is greater than 3 is the top 0.01% of performance. As weāll see, a lot of these variables arenāt normally distributed so this analysis isnāt perfect, but I think itās an acceptable attempt at what is probably an impossible problem.
For most of the records, Iāve looked at rates to try and control for the fact that in a lot of sports the number of games played has increased over time. This means that itās easier to stand out with a smaller number of games played, but there will always be compromises when converting down to a single number.
With that in mind, hereās a visual looking at the grass, clay and overall win rates of tennis players:
An interesting stat (to me anyway) I uncovered while building this is that Andy Murray has a better win rate on grass courts than both Pete Sampras and Novak Djokovic. Djokovic ending up with the 6th best all time Clay win rate is also interesting given heās had to deal with overlapping with Nadal.
Cricket
Iāve already mentioned Don Bradmanās test cricket batting average, so letās move on to look at cricket. Here I found the data on Espncricinfo and filter to all players who have played in at least 10 test matches.
Whereas in tennis you can argue that Bjorn Borg is in the rough region of Nadalās dominance on clay, no one is close to Bradman.
Formula 1
Moving on to Formula 1, currently weāre seeing Lewis Hamilton potentially on course to end his career with the a record number of wins, poles and championships. But if we focus on his per race stats, how does he stack up?
This data was filtered to drivers with at least one win, one pole or one fastest lap over their careers.
You can make a case for Hamilton being by far the most statistically successful driver in the modern era, but he falls short of the ridiculous statistics achieved by Fangio, Ascari and Clark. On the subject of Jim Clark, the piece Richard Hammond presented on him in most recent series of the Grand Tour is excellent and worth a watch for F1 fans.
Football
Finally, we can move back to football and see how Messi stands out on the same metrics. Iāve used two different data sources for this, one is a copy of John Burn-Mudrochās data set which sits behind his visualisation which covers 186 of the best goal scores in the top European leagues since 1990. The full definitions can be seen here.
I also scraped a more extensive set of data which covers the top 1000 all time goal scorers from each of the top five European leagues and major European club competitions. It turned out to be quite hard to get something in the middle of these two datasets as it would involve needing to grab information from a lot of different pages so Iāve left it as is.
Itās quite interesting to see the impressive stats of names from the 1940s-1960s who Iād never come across before, even if they arenāt really that comparable to the modern game.
Here, Messi stands out in the modern era, but depsite the similar distributions for the bulk of players his achievements arenāt as extreme in the context of the history of football. And though Messi does stand relatively alone in the modern era, Cristiano Ronaldo clearly bridges the gap to the rest of the pack as another exceptional performer. This is a bit similar to Bjorn Borgās clay court record in tennis making Nadal look less of an outlier than he otherwise would.
Putting it all together
Finally, letās combine the most interesting figures from each sport into one visual and see how everyone stacks up:
Where do we end up?
- The best F1 pole sitters are more extreme than the best records from the other sports weāve seen here.
- Don Bradmanās test average is arguably the most āpeerlessā record, most others have someone else a little bit behind bridgin the gap the rest (Borg, Ronaldo, Clark) but he stands head and shoulders above the rest.
- Messiās record is could harshly be judged as āmiddle of the road greatnessā in the context of other sports.
Again, Iām not saying these comparisons are accurate scientific judgement, but one potential take on how you might try and make impossible comparisons!
Iād love to see other takes on this sort of comparison and read any comments either on this site or via twitter